Ukraine Front Line, September 2026: Where Kyiv Is Taking Ground Back and Where Russia Is Still Pushing

In brief: The two main front-line trackers can't agree on whether Russia gained or lost ground over the last month, and that disagreement is the story. Ukraine is taking ground back near Lyman and Kupiansk, while Russia keeps inching forward toward Dobropillia, Kostiantynivka and Orikhiv at a price that keeps climbing.

Every war map tells a story, and for most of the last two years this one said the same thing every week: Russia forward, Ukraine back, slowly. This summer that story got harder to tell. In the four weeks from August 25 to September 22, DeepState counted a Russian net gain of about 96 square kilometers (37 square miles). The Institute for the Study of War, working the same four weeks, counted a small Russian net loss, per the tallies Russia Matters compiles from both. In the week of September 14 to 21, it flipped: DeepState had Russia down about 21 square kilometers (8 square miles), while ISW had it up by about 2.6 square kilometers (1 square mile).

The counters don't even agree on the sign. What they agree on is the rate: Russian gains that ran to hundreds of square kilometers a month last winter are now measured in double digits, and some weeks they go negative. This read walks the line from north to south: where Ukraine is winning ground, where it is winning most, and where Russia is still getting forward in the same window.

Ukraine Front Line Scorecard: Two Counters, One Slowdown

Start with the year. ISW says Ukrainian forces have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers and 60 settlements in 2026, while Russian forces have seized only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements and are down a net 20 settlements on the year. Russia's Defense Ministry claims more than 5,300 square kilometers and 220 settlements over the same period. ISW's September 19 assessment says the Russian Defense Ministry continues to greatly exaggerate the extent of its advances.

DeepState's own monthly figures, reported by Radio Svoboda in August, show the same slope from a different angle. Russian gains ran to 445 square kilometers in December 2025, fell to 160 in April, and dropped to 27 in July. The cost went the other way: by casualty estimates cited in that reporting, Russia is losing around 290 soldiers for every square kilometer it takes, 3.5 times its 2025 rate of 85.

None of this means Russia has stopped taking ground. Over the last twelve months DeepState still counts a Russian net gain of about 2,170 square kilometers (839 square miles), and ISW about 1,620 (624 square miles), much of it taken last winter. Ukraine's General Staff logged 277 combat clashes on September 23 alone. What has changed is the exchange rate: each attack now buys Russia less ground at a higher price.

Operation Vivaldi: Where Ukraine Is Winning the Most Ground

The biggest Ukrainian success on the map sits north and northeast of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast. On September 15, Brigadier General Andriy Biletskyi, commander of the 3rd Army Corps, confirmed an offensive his troops had been running under what he called strict information silence. It is called Operation Vivaldi. "Vivaldi, as we know, has four seasons," Biletskyi said, "and this is only the first," per the Kyiv Independent.

Aerial view of the ruins of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. Photo: Third Army Corps via ArmyInform, CC BY 4.0

The first phase, he said, cleared 75 square kilometers of Russian infiltrators, including in Novoselivka, Oleksandrivka, Yarova and Korovyi Yar, and liberated another 10, including the village of Serednie. By September 20, the 3rd Army Corps put the total at 125 square kilometers across both phases, 50 of them formally de-occupied, and announced the liberation of Shandryholove and Derylove and full control of Drobysheve, per Kyiv Post. Independent analysts put it higher: French OSINT analyst Clement Molin had estimated more than 200 square kilometers as early as September 8, and Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting 240.

Per Kyiv Post, the operation hit three Russian armies: the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies and the 1st Guards Tank Army. ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces have largely leveled the front along the Zherebets River after first going after Russian drone crews. Take out the reconnaissance-strike layer, and infantry can move again. The corps also claims a first: unmanned ground vehicles air-dropped by heavy bomber drones more than 10 kilometers behind Russian lines, per Kyiv Post.

A Ukrainian pilot prepares a Hornet strike drone for launch. Photo: Army Media video still via ArmyInform, CC BY 4.0

The effect on Russia's plan was blunt. For months Moscow had been building a pincer around Lyman to reach Ukraine's fortress belt of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka from the north. Roman Pohorilyi of DeepState said the counteroffensive "multiplied all [Russia's] previous efforts by zero," per Euromaidan Press. Even the pro-war Russian channel Rybar blamed "systemic lying in reports to superiors." By September 26, ISW noted, Russian milbloggers were openly blaming a pervasive culture of lying inside the Russian military for Ukraine's successes north and northeast of Lyman.

The 3rd Army Corps also claims more than 3,000 Russian casualties from the operation. That figure can't be verified.

Kupiansk and the Oskil: Small Bites, Steady Gains

Further north in Kharkiv Oblast, the gains are smaller and quieter, but they keep coming. The 23rd R.U.G. Assault Regiment of the Khartiia corps, fighting alongside the 35th Marine Brigade, took back about 13.5 square kilometers around Dvorichna and Zapadne between August 25 and September 3, per Militarnyi. DeepState recorded more Ukrainian gains near Zapadne in the week to September 21.

Destroyed buildings in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, file photo. Photo: ArmyInform, CC BY 4.0

ISW's September 23 update has Ukrainian troops advancing west of Kalynove, north of Kupiansk. Its September 19 assessment says Russian offensive operations on the Kupiansk and Oskil axis did not advance. For a sector Russia once treated as a springboard, that is a long way from where it wanted to be.

The Quieter Gains: Chasiv Yar, Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia

Not every Ukrainian gain gets a code name. In its September 23 update, ISW recorded Ukrainian advances in the eastern and central parts of Molocharka southwest of Chasiv Yar, east of Stinka northeast of Kostiantynivka, south and southeast of Novopavlivka, and southeast of Oleksandrivka on the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia border. Four days earlier it had Ukrainian troops clearing Rai-Oleksandrivka east of Sloviansk and pushing west of Solodke. On September 26 it added advances east of Sloviansk and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Each of these is measured in hundreds of meters, not kilometers. Together they show a defense that is no longer only reacting.

Where Russia Is Still Pushing: Dobropillia

This is the other half of the map, and it is not a small half. Russia's heaviest concentration of force right now sits in front of Dobropillia, a transport hub north of Pokrovsk. EUobserver reported on September 17 that Moscow has stacked three combined arms armies on this sector, the 8th, the 41st and the 51st, plus the 76th Airborne Division and naval infantry, backed by roughly a third of the 1,200 crews in its Rubikon drone center.

The goal is the southern jaw of an encirclement of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, a way around the fortress belt instead of through it. Russian units want to get into the town before the leaves fall and take their concealment with them. On a 30 kilometer front, about 200 Russian soldiers attack every day. "The ratio is approximately one to six when comparing the numbers," said Brigadier General Denys Prokopenko, who commands the Azov corps, describing the balance of forces across the wider front.

Russia is gaining ground here, slowly. DeepState reported Russian advances near Bilytske in the week to September 21, and ISW recorded advances south of Dobropillia on September 23. But the Russian Defense Ministry's September 22 claim to have encircled the town was, ISW said, not supported by any evidence, and was timed to the UN General Assembly week to push the case for Ukrainian capitulation.

Kostiantynivka and the Road to Sloviansk

Kostiantynivka is the one fortress belt city Russia has fought its way into. Moscow claimed to have captured it on July 3. Zelensky dismissed the claim at the time, and the city is still contested. In September, ISW confirmed Russian advances in northwestern Kostiantynivka through geolocated footage, and on September 23 in the center of the city. Ukraine's General Staff counted 30 Russian attacks in the Kostiantynivka direction on September 23, the most of any sector that day.

Russia Matters' weekly tallies track the Russian creep around the city's approaches: advances near Stepanivka, Kotlyne and Chervonyi in the week of September 8 to 14, then the occupation of Markove and advances near Fedorivka, Kotlyne, Bochkove, Bilytske and Nove Shakhove the week after.

The other Russian move worth watching sits just south of the ground Vivaldi retook. Blocked north of Lyman, Russian troops are now infiltrating toward Mykolaivka, a strongpoint on the approaches to Sloviansk. Pohorilyi warned that losing it would create "serious problems for Sloviansk's defenders."

The South: The Huliaipole Line Stabilizes, Orikhiv Under Pressure

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast the picture is mixed. ISW confirmed Russia held Huliaipole on February 6, from geolocated footage. Since then the sector west of the town has stabilized. DeepState's Pohorilyi credits the arrival of the 225th Assault Battalion and other units under a single corps command. "The biggest missing component was cohesive command at the corps level," he said, per NV.

Orikhiv is the worry. Russian assault groups are slipping through farmland toward the town's southern outskirts. "There is a substantial enemy concentration in the fields fronting Orikhiv. They are gradually infiltrating," Pohorilyi said. If they get a foothold inside the town, Ukrainian defenders could face the kind of urban trap that played out at Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad and Siversk. ISW notes Russian forces are also trying to bypass Orikhiv through the Huliaipole direction.

Soldiers of the 154th Mechanized Brigade in the Huliaipole direction, September 2026. Photo: ArmyInform, CC BY 4.0

In the north, the Sumy border push has gone nowhere. ISW describes Russian forces there as stuck at the Korova River for months with supply problems, and reported no confirmed Russian advances in Sumy or Kharkiv in its September 23 update.

What the September Map Means

Put it all together and September looks like this. Russia still sets the pace of the fighting: 277 clashes in a single day, heavy pressure on four axes, and a willingness to spend soldiers by the hundred for every square kilometer. What it no longer has is a reliable way to turn that pressure into ground. Ukraine, short on infantry, has found a formula that works in pockets: blind the drone layer, then clear infiltrators with small teams and robots.

A Ukrainian infantryman moves through smoke, file photo. Photo: 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade via ArmyInform, CC BY 4.0

ISW's September 26 assessment suggests the Kremlin may be drawing its own conclusions: Ukraine's battlefield successes in 2026 may be pushing Putin to lean on long-range strikes to force a surrender over the winter. That fits the week's diplomacy. The Kremlin effectively rejected Trump's proposed ceasefire on strikes against energy infrastructure, ISW reported on September 23, the same day it counted 161 Russian drones launched at Ukraine overnight.

What to Watch

Watch for Vivaldi's second season, and whether Biletskyi's corps crosses the Zherebets or turns south toward Mykolaivka. Watch Dobropillia before the leaf fall, and whether Russian infantry gets into the town or keeps dying in the fields around it. Watch the southern outskirts of Orikhiv. And watch DeepState's full September total in the first days of October. Its four-week count through September 22 still showed Russia ahead. A full month at zero or below would put September alongside the late summer stretch when DeepState had Russia losing ground outright.

Which sector do you think decides the winter: Lyman, Dobropillia or Orikhiv? Tell us in the comments, or send the channel the next sector you want broken down.

For the intel between the deep reads, the channel runs all day on Telegram at t.me/TheLeaflet, and the morning brief lands here in The Daily Sitrep.

Read next: The Energy Ceasefire Gambit: Zelensky and Trump Talk Truce While Both Grids Burn and The Perm Refinery Drone Strike: 592 Drones, a Urals Giant Burning, and the Plant That Feeds the Kh-59.

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Sources

Russia Matters, War Report Cards (September 16 and 23, 2026, compiling DeepState and ISW data); Institute for the Study of War, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessments (September 19, 23 and 26, 2026); Kyiv Independent, Francis Farrell (September 15, 2026); Kyiv Post (September 15 and 20, 2026); Meduza (September 16, 2026); Hromadske (September 15, 2026); Euromaidan Press (August 10 and September 23, 2026, the first citing Radio Svoboda); EUobserver (September 17, 2026); NV (September 23, 2026); Militarnyi (September 3, 2026); Censor.net, General Staff daily report (September 24, 2026); Al Jazeera (July 2026). Casualty and loss figures from either side cannot be independently verified. Photo credits: ArmyInform and Ukrainian unit press services via ArmyInform (CC BY 4.0).