Overnight on October 14, Russia put 39 ballistic missiles and 128 drones into Ukraine's grid: 10 killed, 600,000 without power, no early warning from partners, and new Ukraine Starlink restrictions capping moving terminals at 100 mph.

Trump announced a Ukraine energy ceasefire that Kyiv learned about from the news. Behind it: eight hours in Miami where US envoys reportedly threatened to cut intelligence sharing, arms threats relayed to Europe, and a first night that already looked like a violation.

The Trump Russia diesel deal waives US sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027, announced after a Putin call while Kyiv's negotiators sat in Miami. What the license says, what Kyiv lost, and what it does to the energy war.

Black Sea ship attacks just crossed a line: a grain carrier sunk inside Romania's economic zone, two more ships hit off Bulgaria within 24 hours, and at least nine merchant vessels struck in four days. Why Russia is hunting the grain fleet, and what NATO's littoral states will not say.

The new Germany Ukraine aid package lands with Merz in Kyiv: 1.3 billion euros for the fifth war winter, thousands of IRIS-T missiles, and tens of thousands of STRILA interceptor drones built in Ukraine with German money. The same morning, Berlin's spy chief told parliament Russia is already waging a shadow war.

Trump, Frederiksen and Nielsen sign the Greenland security deal at the UN today: permanent US security control, two new base sites, non-NATO militaries barred from the island, and NATO's ugliest internal fight defused just as Zelensky lands in New York.

The Duma election results hand United Russia a record 355 seats in Russia's first wartime vote, while the AfD wins Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Merz's CDU crashes out of a state parliament. What one Sunday of counting means for the war.

The first drone shot down over Lithuania came out of Belarus: Italian Typhoons killed it after 30 minutes in allied airspace, a Gerbera washed up on a Polish beach, and Kyiv says Shaheds are flying on Belarusian LTE networks. The Baltic drone file just turned kinetic.

A Russian drone hit the Kyiv-Warsaw locomotive two kilometers from Poland, minutes after a diplomatic train carrying Boris Johnson and EU security advisers pulled out early. ISW's read of the Yahodyn drone strike: it was aimed at wounding or killing European officials.

The Houthis now hold both the port of Mokha and Perim Island, the rock that splits the Bab el-Mandeb into two shipping lanes. Oil is over 100 dollars, Riyadh called Washington twice, and the answer was no. Here is the week the strait changed hands.

The IRGC hoisted a 3-ton Anduril Dive-LD out of the water at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz and called it a captured American submarine. The Pentagon says the drone was dead in the water for over a day. Both can be true, and that is the problem.

The AfD took 44 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, the first far-right state election win in postwar German history, and fell a decimal short of governing alone. The deep read: how the party got here, the firewall math, and the Russia file.

A Spanish F-18 killed a drone over Romania, a Russian Banderol came down in Moldova a day later, and new reporting maps Russia's Shahed launch network at ten bases and 59 rails. The catch-up sitrep for August 18: the drone war is brushing NATO's buffer zone, by design.

An airport employee found a drone rigged with Semtex beside a Ukrainian An-124 at Leipzig/Halle, home base of Antonov Airlines and NATO's SALIS airlift. The detonator failed. The message did not.